• Coping with Historic Drought in California Rangelands - Results of an Interagency Workshop (J Brown, P Alvarez, H Deswood, E Elias, S Spiegal) - The current drought in California is of historic proportion, both in its intensity and its effect on agriculture. Although storms of the 2015-16 winter rainfall season have provided modest drought relief, their effects on alleviating the multi-year drought are unknown. Short-and mid-term forecasts are not favorable and generally project an increase in variabilityas well. Although an increase in seasonal rainfall can be expected to result in increased forage production, the ability of grazing operations to respond at that timescale may be limited by economic constraints.
• USDA Southwest Regional Hub for Adaptation to and Mitigation of Climate Change (A Rango, E Elias, C Steele, K Havstad) - In early 2014, the USDA formed seven regional climate hubs across the United States to support climate-smart decision making. This multi-agency effort (Agricultural Research Service, Forest Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Farm Service, and Rural Development) will deliver science-based knowledge to farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners. The Southwest Climate Hub covers Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah.
• Satellite Observations of Water Mass Changes in New Mexico (T Schmugge, E Elias, M Rodell, A Rango) - In February 2014, the USDA announced 7 regional climate hubs to assist farmers, ranchers and forest landowners in adapting to the effects of climate change.  In the Southwestern US, one of the projected impacts is a decrease in water availability and an increase in drought (Southwest Climate Alliance, 2013).  This projection reinforces the need for methods to measure changes in total water mass over large areas of the southwest.  NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data can be used to measure changes in total water of a relatively large area. GRACE satellite data provide the basis for recent articles depicting change in water movement in various regions of the United States (Famiglietti and Rodell, 2013).
• Assessing climate change impacts on water availability of snowmelt-dominated watersheds of the Upper Rio Grande Basin (E Elias, C Steele, A Rango, J Mejia) - Water resources of the arid southwest are primarily a result of winter snowpack accumulation and spring snowmelt runoff. Climate change is predicted to decrease snowpack accumulation and cause earlier snowmelt and peak runoff in the Upper Rio Grande (URG) basin. Hydrographs of the most productive subbasins of the URG containing both a long term gauging station and appreciable snowmelt (n=24) were analyzed to identify basins at-risk of losing their characteristic springtime snowmelt hydrograph under a changed climate.
• Impact of future climate on water availability of snowmelt-dominated watersheds of the Upper Rio Grande Basin (E Elias, C Steele, A Rango, J Mejia) - Water resources of the arid southwest are primarily a result of winter snowpack accumulation and spring snowmelt runoff. Climate change is predicted to decrease snowpack accumulation and cause earlier snowmelt and peak runoff in the Upper Rio Grande (URG) basin. The Snowmelt Runoff Model was used to evaluate the impacts of increased temperature and altered precipitation on snow covered area, streamflow timing and seasonal and total volume. Simulations investigate a fairly hot and dry future condition at the end of the century using a regionally recommended global climate model downscaled to existing climate stations. Subbasins of the URG containing appreciable snowmelt and a long-term gauging station were simulated (n=24). Total basin snow covered area on April 1 decreased by 54%. There was considerable range in decrease in snow covered area (6-94%), total volume (1-30%) and runoff timing (0-60) days earlier by basin. Total runoff volume decreased by 7% based upon temperature changes alone and 26% using future temperature and precipitation. The simulated results of reduced snow cover, increased March flow and earlier runoff have been observed in recent measured data. The large predicted decrease in May, June and July volume will likely exacerbate water management challenges in the URG. Shallow groundwater return flows from irrigation in the basin may help provide delayed flow to the river in the driest months most affected by warming temperatures of a changing climate.
• Simulating streamflow under a warming climate. Implications for acequia communities in the Upper Rio Grande (C Steele, A Rango, E Elias, S Fernald, J Mejia) - Over the next century, climate change is expected to bring warmer temperatures and affect precipitation patterns in the Upper Rio Grande basin. We have been investigating how these changes may affect regional water supply (Elias et al., 2014). There will be also impacts felt at the local scale which have significance for rural communities. Here we present a case study of climate change effects on surface water supply from melting annual snowpack for four small, high-elevation sub-basins: El Rito, Rio Hondo, Rio Santa Barbara and the Rio Pueblo.
• Potential impacts of climate warming on runoff from snowmelt: a case study of two mountainous basins in the Upper Rio Grande (C Steele, A Rango, E Elias, S Fernald, J Mejia) - Over the next century, climate change is expected to bring warmer temperatures and affect precipitation patterns in the Upper Rio Grande basin. We have been investigating how these changes may affect regional water supply. There will be also impacts felt at the local scale which have significance for rural and urban communities alike. Here we present an analysis of climate change effects on surface water supply from melting annual snowpack for two small, mountainous sub-basins: El Rito and Santa Fe.