| Title | Production and biodiversity responses to extreme climatic events across a heterogeneous landscape |
| Publication Type | Conference Paper |
| Year of Publication | 2009 |
| Authors | Peters DC, Yao J, Sala O.E |
| Conference Name | US International Association for Landscape Ecology |
| ARIS Log Number | 237239 |
| Keywords | atmospheric, biodiversity, climatic, ecology, heterogeneous, temperatures |
| Abstract | Rising concentrations of atmospheric gases are increasing temperatures globally, but the magnitude and trajectory of localized changes in precipitation are highly uncertain. This uncertainty in climate as a driver results in uncertainty in predictions of future ecosystem dynamics. To reduce this uncertainty, we used 18 years of ecosystem responses that included a series of both dry and wet years to predict future dynamics of a heterogeneous landscape consisting of grasslands and degraded shrublands. We show that long-term (150 year) historical trends in conversion between grasslands and shrublands can be either offset by multi-year increases in precipitation or reinforced by increases in drought. Production and biodiversity responses to extreme climatic events depend on the spatial context of the ecosystem, Although historical dynamics provide insights to the future, ecological response data collected under alternative climatic conditions are needed to account for uncertainty in the direction and magnitude of global change drivers in the future. |
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Science-based management strategies for sustainability of agriculture and other land uses
