Data from six years of seeding trials from the Jornada Experimental Range were used to develop relationships for seedling establishment as a function of soil moisture, soil temperature, and-seedbed preparations. These relationships were integrated into an economic evaluation of expected net present value based on probabilities of the occurrence of various environmental conditions. The analysis shows that seeding is not feasible as a financial investment in the region. However, when seeding is considered necessary for other reasons, the least cost native plant species is blue grama (Bouteloma gracilis) with no seedbed preparation and the least cost introduced plant species is Lehmann lovegrass (Eragrostis lehmanniana) with no seedbed preparation. If seeding in the region is to become economically attractive, ways to increase the probability of achieving stand establishment must be found.