@conference {JRN55251, title = {Feast or famine: Climate impacts on agriculture using crop insurance data}, booktitle = {American Geophysical Union}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {San Francisco, California}, abstract = {The federal crop insurance program has paid out over $120 billion between 1989 and 2017 due to weather and climate-driven events. Operated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency, the taxpayer-subsidized program is an important financial safety net to our farmers, ranchers, and landowners. However, climate change is expected to increase programmatic costs, decrease agricultural production, and threaten rural communities{\textquoteright} economic livelihoods and wellbeing. Our objectives are to: (1) present methods to analyze and visualize long-term crop insurance losses, (2) report on significant patterns and trends of crop loss, and (3) share an online tool used to engage stakeholders using these data to enhance their risk management decision making. We performed a retrospective analysis of crop insurance loss data from 1989 to 2017 at multiple spatial and temporal scales. We found that drought and excess moisture were the leading two causes of crop loss across the Nation resulting in $79.6 billion in indemnities, or insurance payouts, and comprising 61\% of total indemnities. Monthly and regional patterns of crop loss demonstrated the capability of crop insurance loss data to act as an integrator of environmental, socio-economic, and management factors. Trend analyses revealed divergent patterns of risk and a {\textquoteleft}feast or famine{\textquoteright} storyline of water with either too much, or too little, causing significant crop loss. These also suggested areas of higher production risk related to different weather and climate-driven events. Some areas may perceive hail as a greater risk, and therefore increase insurance coverage to hedge and minimize risk. In other areas, adaptive capacity of producers may be limiting losses. Finally, we developed the AgRisk Viewer, a web-based platform to make these data accessible, discoverable, and usable to our agricultural stakeholders. This information helps to identify high production risk areas, and thus enables climate-informed agricultural risk management ensuring viable and sustainable landscapes. Poster $\#$528860.}, author = {J.T. Reyes and Emile H. Elias} } @article {JRN55147, title = {Spatio-temporal variation of crop loss in the United States from 2001 to 2016}, journal = {Environmental Research letters}, volume = {14}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, pages = {1-12}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {

Crop insurance loss data can illuminate variations in agricultural impacts from exposure to weather and climate-driven events, and can improve our understanding of agricultural vulnerabilities. Here we perform a retrospective analysis of weather and climate-driven reasons for crop loss (i.e. cause of loss) obtained from the Risk Management Agency of the United States Department of Agriculture. The federal crop insurance program has insured over $440 billion in liabilities representing farmers{\textquoteright} crops from 2001 to 2016. Specifically, we examine the top ten weather and climate-driven causes of loss from 2001 to 2016 across the nation comprising at least 83\% of total indemnities (i.e. insurance payouts provided to farmers after crop loss events). First, we analyzed the relative fraction of indemnities by causes of loss, over different spatial and temporal resolutions. We found that drought and excess precipitation comprised the largest sources of crop loss across the nation. However, these causes varied strongly over space and time. We applied two additional normalization techniques to indemnities using (1) insurance premia and the gross domestic product implicit price deflator, and (2) liabilities to calculate the loss cost. We conducted trend analyses using the Mann{\textendash}Kendall statistical test on loss cost over time. Differential trends and patterns in loss cost demonstrated the importance of spatio-temporal resolution in assessing causes of loss. The majority of monthly significant trends (p \< 0.05) showed increasing loss cost (i.e. increasing indemnities or decreasing liabilities) in response to weather events. Finally, we briefly discuss an online portal (AgRisk Viewer) to make these data accessible at multiple spatial scales and sub-annual time steps to support both research and outreach efforts promoting adaptation and resilience in agricultural systems.

}, keywords = {adaptation, agriculture, climate change, crop insurance, drought, extreme weather, vulnerability}, doi = {doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1ac9}, url = {files/bibliography/19-018.pdf}, author = {J.T. Reyes and Emile H. Elias} } @conference {JRN54912, title = {Agricultural Production Risk in a Changing Climate: Assessing Causes of Loss Using Crop Insurance Data}, booktitle = {Ecological Society of America}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, publisher = {Ecological Society of America}, organization = {Ecological Society of America}, address = {New Orleans, LA}, abstract = {

The synthesis and analysis of existing {\textquoteleft}big data{\textquoteright} in the agricultural sector can yield additional insights of such knowledge in a changing climate, as well as increase the collective value of these data. The creation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hub network prioritizes this with information synthesis and tool development as tangible outputs. The Hubs{\textquoteright} mission is to develop and deliver science-based information and technologies to agricultural and natural resource managers to enable climate-informed decision-making. As part of this, Hubs work across USDA agencies to synthesize existing information to meet the needs of our ultimate stakeholders - farmers, ranchers, and land managers. The USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) is responsible for overseeing the Federal crop insurance program and works with private insurance companies. RMA has collected annual cause of loss data since the mid-1900s with monthly data beginning in 1989. These data describe the reason for loss (e.g., drought, wind, irrigation failure), indemnity amount (i.e., total cost of loss), as well as relevant spatio-temporal information (i.e., state, county, year, month).

Results/Conclusions:We first describe an initial retrospective analysis of causes of loss at multiple spatial and temporal scales over the United States. We find that drought and excess moisture are the top two causes of loss since 2001, and are responsible for over 70\% of nationwide climate-related crop loss payments. Regional differences in top causes of loss demonstrate the complex interactions of biophysical, climatic, socio-economic, and geo-political factors. Causes of loss over time show distinct trends as a function of major weather disasters and long-term climate events, such as drought. Using this information, we engage our partners and stakeholders to develop decision-relevant products related to crop insurance and create opportunities for future research co-production. A web-based tool is also developed to deliver these crop insurance data to our partners and stakeholders for increased accessibility, discoverability, and usability. Ultimately, we envision the project supporting targeted adaptation in high production risk areas, multi-scale land management decisions, and ecosystem resilience.

}, author = {J.T. Reyes and Andrew Eischens and Shilts, Mark and Jebediah C. Williamson and Emile H. Elias} } @conference {JRN54919, title = {Toward Accessible, Discoverable, and Usable Crop Insurance Data: Multi-scale Analysis and Visualization of Cause of Loss}, booktitle = {16th Annual Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop (CPASW)}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, publisher = {16th Annual Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop (CPASW)}, organization = {16th Annual Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop (CPASW)}, address = {Fargo, ND}, abstract = {

The synthesis and analysis of existing {\textquoteleft}big data{\textquoteright} can increase the overall collective value and yield additional insight of such knowledge. The creation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hub network prioritizes this with information synthesis and tool development as tangible outputs. The Hubs{\textquoteright} mission is to develop and deliver science-based information and technologies to agricultural and natural resource managers to enable climate-informed decision-making. As part of this, Hubs work across USDA agencies to synthesize existing information to meet the needs of our ultimate stakeholders - farmers, ranchers, and land managers. The USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) is responsible for overseeing the Federal crop insurance program and works with private insurance companies. RMA has collected annual cause of loss data since the mid-1900s with monthly data beginning in 1989. These data describe the reason for loss (e.g., drought, wind, irrigation failure), indemnity amount (i.e., total cost of loss), as well as relevant spatio-temporal information (i.e., state, county, year, month). We describe an initial retrospective analysis at multiple spatial and temporal scales over the United States. Drought and excess moisture were the top two causes of loss since 2001, and were responsible for over 70\% of nationwide climate-related crop loss payments. Regional differences in top causes of loss demonstrate the complex interactions of biophysical, climatic, socio-economic, and geo-political factors. Causes of loss over time show distinct trends as a function of major weather disasters and long-term climate events, such as drought. A web-based tool was then developed to deliver these crop insurance data to our partners and stakeholders for increased accessibility, discoverability, and usability. Ultimately, we envision the project supporting land management decisions and ecosystem resilience.

}, author = {J.T. Reyes and Andrew Eischens and Shilts, Mark and Jebediah C. Williamson and Emile H. Elias} } @conference {JRN54920, title = {Assessing Climate Risk on Agricultural Production: Insights Using Retrospective Analysis of Crop Insurance and Climatic Trends}, booktitle = {American Geophysical Union}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, organization = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {New Orleans, LA}, abstract = {

The collaborative synthesis of existing datasets, such as long-term climate observations and farmers{\textquoteright} crop insurance payments, can increase their overall collective value and societal application. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs were created to develop and deliver science-based information and technologies to agricultural and natural resource managers to enable climate-informed decision-making. As part of this mission, Hubs work across USDA and other climate service agencies to synthesize existing information. The USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) is responsible for overseeing the Federal crop insurance program which currently insures over $100 billion in crops annually. RMA hosts data describing the cause for loss (e.g. drought, wind, irrigation failure) and indemnity amount (i.e. total cost of loss) at multiple spatio-temporal scales (i.e. state, county, year, month). The objective of this paper is to link climate information with indemnities, and their associated cause of loss, to assess climate risk on agricultural production and provide regionally-relevant information to stakeholders to promote resilient working landscapes. We performed a retrospective trend analysis at the state-level for the American Southwest (SW). First, we assessed indemnity-only trends by cause of loss and crop type at varying temporal scales. Historical monthly weather data (i.e. precipitation and temperature) and long-term drought indices (e.g. Palmer Drought Severity Index) were then linked with indemnities and grouped by different causes of loss. Climatological ranks were used to integrate historical comparative intensity of acute and long-term climatic events. Heat and drought as causes of loss were most correlated with temperature and drought indicators, respectively. Across all SW states increasing indemnities were correlated with warmer conditions. Multiple statistical trend analyses suggest a framework is necessary to appropriately measure the biophysical signals in crop insurance trends taking into account spatio-temporal characteristics. Based on stakeholder feedback, we also developed a web-based information browser to visualize and assess indemnity trends providing useful and usable knowledge to support informed land management decisions and ecosystem resilience.

}, author = {J.T. Reyes and Andrew Eischens and Shilts, Mark and Jebediah C. Williamson and Emile H. Elias} } @conference {JRN54784, title = {Insights on drought and long-term climatic trends: Retrospective analyses of RMA cause of loss data}, booktitle = {University Council on Water Resources / National Institute of Water Resources Annual Conference}, year = {2017}, month = {06/2017}, publisher = {University Council on Water Resources / National Institute of Water Resources}, organization = {University Council on Water Resources / National Institute of Water Resources}, address = {Fort Collins, CO}, abstract = {

A modern trend among federal agencies, funding streams, and research projects involves the synthesis of existing data to increase the overall collective value and meaning of such knowledge. The creation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs follows this line of thought with information synthesis and tool development as tangible outputs of this new federal coordination network. The Hubs{\textquoteright} mission is to develop and deliver science-based information and technologies to agricultural and natural resource managers to enable climate-informed decision-making. As part of this, Hubs work across USDA agencies to synthesize existing information to meet the needs of our stakeholders. The USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) is responsible for overseeing the Federal crop insurance program and works with private insurance companies. The USDA also administers other programs for commodities not insured under the federal program such as for livestock and honey bees. RMA has collected annual cause of loss data since the mid-1900s with monthly data beginning in 1989. These data describe the reason for loss (e.g. drought, wind, irrigation failure), indemnity amount (i.e. total cost of loss), insurance plan code, as well as relevant spatio-temporal information (i.e. state, county, year, month). \ The objective of this paper is to link climate information with cause of loss data to potentially shape the development of future RMA programs and provide regionally-relevant information to our stakeholders to effectively manage their lands. We describe an initial retrospective analysis at various spatial scales by land use/land cover, ecoregions, climate zones, and geopolitical boundaries. In addition, we link historical weather data (precipitation and temperature) with causes of loss at multiple time steps: monthly, annual, and decadal. Ultimately this analysis will convey county-level trends to support informed land management decisions and ecosystem resilience.\ 

}, author = {J.T. Reyes and Andrew Eischens and Shilts, Mark and Emile H. Elias and Rachel Steele} } @conference {JRN54816, title = {Insights on drought and long-term climatic trends: Retrospective analyses of crop insurance data}, booktitle = {ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, publisher = {ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting Abstracts}, organization = {ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting Abstracts}, address = {Tampa, FL}, abstract = {

A modern trend among federal agencies, funding streams, and research projects involves the synthesis of existing data to increase the overall collective value and meaning of such knowledge. The creation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs follows this line of thought with information synthesis and tool development as tangible outputs of this new federal coordination network. The Hubs{\textquoteright} mission is to develop and deliver science-based information and technologies to agricultural and natural resource managers to enable climate-informed decision-making. As part of this, Hubs work across USDA agencies to synthesize existing information to meet the needs of our stakeholders. \ \ 

The USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) is responsible for overseeing the Federal crop insurance program and works with private insurance companies. The USDA also administers other programs for commodities not insured under the federal program such as for livestock and honey bees. RMA has collected annual cause of loss data since the mid-1900s with monthly data beginning in 1989. These data describe the reason for loss (e.g. drought, wind, irrigation failure), indemnity amount (i.e. total cost of loss), as well as relevant spatio-temporal information (i.e. state, county, year, month).

The objective of this paper is to link climate information with indemnities and their associated cause of loss to potentially shape the development of future RMA programs and provide regionally-relevant information to our stakeholders to effectively manage their lands. We describe an initial retrospective trend analysis at the state-level for the American Southwest. In addition, we link historical monthly weather data (i.e. precipitation and temperature) and long-term drought indices (e.g. Palmer Drought Severity Index) with indemnities grouped by different causes of loss. Ultimately this analysis will convey county-level spatial and temporal trends via a web-based information browser to support informed land management decisions and ecosystem resilience.

}, author = {J.T. Reyes and Andrew Eischens and Shilts, Mark and Emile H. Elias and Rachel Steele} }