@article {JRN55428, title = {Landscape dynamics of a vector-borne disease in the western US: How vector{\textendash}habitat relationships inform disease hotspots}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is a vector-borne viral disease that causes lesions in livestock, premises, county and state quarantines, and important economic losses. We investigated vector{\textendash}habitat characteristics for vectors associated with VS in regions of recurrent disease within the western United States (US) that consistently lead to the environment where vector, host, and pathogen populations intersect to enable pathogen transmission. We analyzed the habitats of previously identified insect vectors, including black flies (BFs) (Simulium vittatum complex), biting midges (BMs) (Culicoides variipennis complex, which includes Culicoides sonorensis), and sand flies (SFs) (Lutzomyia shannoni) in six regions of interest (ROIs) containing hotspots of VS ranging from Texas (TX) to Wyoming. This analysis broadened the understanding of (1) how regions of reoccurring VS differ from the broader western US, (2) how geographically separated regions and hotspots are similar across time, and (3) how vector{\textendash}environment habitat a priori knowledge relates to observed hotspots. Analysis of watershed factors (livestock densities, land-cover proportions, stream and lake densities, and irrigation methods) indicated a complex system separating areas with high, recurring VS from the broader western US. Although no single characteristic separated the six ROIs from other areas, we found two distinct emerging groups (northern ROI and TX). Hotspots, estimated from monthly VS concentrations, evolved northward throughout the year and most hotspots were closer to flowing water and agricultural land than the broader ROI. All ROIs contained environmental conditions suitable for multiple vectors at some point in the year, but BFs had the highest suitability scores, whereas BM scores were lower and varied annually with higher suitability in summer. SFs had the lowest suitability score in all ROIs, consistent with their low likelihood of being vectors. BM habitat patches were often orders of magnitude smaller than BF patches, and hotspot patches reinforce the likelihood that BF may be the most critical vector in northern ROI, whereas both BM and BF have similar likelihood in southern ROI. Given limited existing vector data, this analysis provides an alternate pathway for using habitat information to associate likely vectors responsible for transmission. Results could support early warning and mitigation efforts to reduce the incidence of VS.}, keywords = {livestock, nidus, patch analysis, Vector-borne disease, vesicular stomatitis virus}, doi = {10.1002/ecs2.4267}, url = {files/bibliography/22-025.pdf}, author = {Emile H. Elias and Heather M. Savoy and Dustin A Swanson and Lee W. Cohnstaedt and Debra P. C. Peters and J. D. Derner and Angela Pelzel-McCluskey and Barbara Drolet and Luis Rodriguez} } @article {JRN55265, title = {Snapshot of rancher perspectives on creative cattle management options}, journal = {Rangelands}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, abstract = {A major challenge to successful management of livestock production in the western United States (U.S.) is coping with the extremely variable weather that dramatically affects forage availability. In addition, temperatures have already increased across the western U.S. and will continue to do so, creating even more challenging environmental conditions for future cattle production in the semi-arid and arid west . The Sustainable Southwest Beef project is a new Coordinated Agricultural Project led by New Mexico State University poised to identify viable options for arid lands ranchers and the U.S. beef industry as environmental challenges continue. The 5-year project is being conducted by a diverse team of nearly 30 research, education and extension specialists, focusing on three creative management strategies: precision ranching, heritage breeds and alternative supply chain options. A group of ranchers from the western U.S. advises the team (Figure 1). The Sustainable Southwest Beef team introduced the project to roughly 125 ranchers, feedlot operators and others connected to the beef cattle industry at the 2020 Southwest Beef Symposium in Amarillo, Texas and collected initial rancher perceptions of the three creative management strategies.}, keywords = {Beef production, climate change, Heritage cattle, precipitation, Precision livestock farming, Supply chain}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rala.2020.09.004}, url = {files/bibliography/20-033.pdf}, author = {Emile H. Elias and Skye Aney and G. Duff and Craig Gifford and S. Spiegal and Andr{\'e}s F. Cibils and Jean Steiner and Richard E. Estell} } @article {JRN55172, title = {Crop Vulnerability to Weather and Climate Risk: Analysis of Interacting Systems and Adaptation Efficacy for Sustainable Crop Production}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {11}, year = {2019}, month = {23 November 2019}, pages = {6619}, abstract = {

Climate change is increasing mean and extreme temperatures in the Southwestern United States, leading to a suite of changes affecting agricultural production. These include changes in water, soils, pathogens, weeds, and pests comprising the production environment. The aim of this synthesis is to describe the anticipated leading agricultural pressures and adaptive responses, many of which are near-term actions with longer-term consequences. In the semiarid Southwestern United States, climate change is expected to increase water scarcity. Surface water shortage is the leading reason for recent diminished crop yields in the Southwest. Drought and lack of water represent the leading regional weather-related cause of crop loss from 1989 to 2017. Thus, water scarcity has been and will continue to be a critical factor leading to regional crop vulnerability. Soils, pathogens, weeds, and insects are components of the agricultural production environment and are directly influenced by near-term weather and long-term climate conditions. Field crops, vegetable crops, and perennial crops have unique production requirements and diverse management options, many already used in farm management, to cope with production environment changes to build climate resilience. Farmers and ranchers continuously respond to changing conditions on a near-term basis. Long-term planning and novel adaptation measures implemented may now build nimble and responsive systems and communities able to cope with future conditions. While decision-support tools and resources are providing increasingly sophisticated approaches to cope with production in the 21st century, we strive to keep pace with the cascading barrage of inter-connected agricultural challenges.

}, doi = {10.3390/su11236619}, url = {files/bibliography/19-026.pdf}, author = {Emile H. Elias and Robert Flynn and Omololu John Idowu and J.T. Reyes and Soumaila Sanogo and Brian J. Schutte and Ryann Smith and Caitriana Steele and Carol Sutherland} } @conference {JRN55236, title = {The effects of climate change on agricultural systems: A Southwest climate Hub curriculum unit for 6th-12th grade students}, booktitle = {American Geophysical Union}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, address = {San Francisco, California}, abstract = {Assessing vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate variability and change is vital in securing food systems and sustaining rural livelihoods. Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners rely on science-based, decision-relevant, and localized information to maintain production, ecological viability, and economic returns. This contribution synthesizes a collection of research on the future of agricultural production in the American Southwest (SW). Research was based on a variety of geospatial methodologies and datasets to assess the vulnerability of rangelands and livestock, field crops, specialty crops, and forests in the SW to climate-risk and change. This collection emerged from the development of regional vulnerability assessments for agricultural climate-risk by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hub Network, established to deliver science-based information and technologies to enable climate-informed decision-making. Authors defined vulnerability differently based on their agricultural system of interest, although each primarily focuses on biophysical systems. We found that an inconsistent framework for vulnerability and climate risk was necessary to adequately capture the diversity, variability, and heterogeneity of SW landscapes, peoples, and agriculture. ~Through the diversity of research questions and methodologies, this collection of articles provides valuable information on various aspects of SW vulnerability. All articles relied on geographic information systems technology, with highly variable levels of complexity. Agricultural articles used National Agricultural Statistics Service data, either as tabular county level summaries or through the CropScape cropland raster datasets. Most relied on modeled historic and future climate information, but with differing assumptions regarding spatial resolution and temporal framework. We assert that it is essential to evaluate climate risk using a variety of complementary methodologies and perspectives. In addition, we found that spatial analysis supports informed adaptation, within and outside the SW United States. The persistence and adaptive capacity of agriculture in the water-limited Southwest serves as an instructive example and may offer solutions to reduce future climate risk. Paper number $\#$ED33A-0935.}, author = {Emile H. Elias and J.T. Reyes and Caitriana Steele and Stephanie Bestelmeyer and Stephanie Haan-Amato} } @conference {JRN55235, title = {The evolution of partnerships and their role in building resilience in the first five years of the USDA Climate Hub Network}, booktitle = {American Geophysical Union}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, address = {San Francisco, California}, abstract = {In February 2014, former Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack announced the formation of 10 Climate Hubs across the United States to {\textquotedblleft}Develop and deliver science-based, region-specific information and technologies to agricultural and natural resource managers, and communities that enable climate-smart decision-making.{\textquotedblright} Here we present examples of the emergence and evolution of partnerships from the USDA Southwest Climate Hub (SWCH) through the lens of building resilience in the agricultural and forestry community sectors. All examples have distinctly different provenance (from opportunistic to strategic), time-horizons (weeks to years) and efficacy in building resilience, defined as a community-based positive sense of persisting during adversity. The partnerships stem from a strategic vision, a data need and a weather event (exceptional drought). 1). Early on the SWCH engaged with regional land grant Universities by awarding small grants to Cooperative Extension. This partnership has supported engagement with stakeholders in far-off locations (Hawaii and the U.S. affiliated Pacific Islands) and creative, necessary ongoing projects (MyRainge in Arizona). A series of meetings led to the Extension Climate Network. 2). The Colorado Plateau exceptional drought of 2018 led to rapid development and delivery of webinars for stakeholders and media designed to share information about current and projected weather conditions and likely impacts. The webinars were presented by regional and national experts to stakeholders. Many partners contributed to these including the SWCH, the National Integrated Drought Information System, the National Drought Mitigation Center, State Climatologists and others. These webinars gained considerable media attention and positive feedback, especially after fires emerged in Southwestern Colorado, but may have had limited benefit in terms of long-term resilience. 3). A data need to support Grass-Cast, a rangeland productivity tool, led to a collaboration between the Bureau of Indian Affairs, Navajo Nation, a consulting firm and Hubs to collect and make available data to support future Grass-Cast projections. We describe our experience of the efficacy of these collaborative partnerships in building resilience and future best-practices. Paper number $\#$PA43E-1184.}, author = {Emile H. Elias and J.T. Reyes and Caitriana Steele and Helena Deswood} } @conference {JRN55063, title = {Islands of resilience: Community challenges and responses to the 2018 Colorado Plateau exceptional drought}, booktitle = {Universities Council on Water Resources}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, address = {Snowbird, UT}, abstract = {

Exceptional drought persisted over the Colorado Plateau and adjacent regions for nearly all 2018. This area serves as the headwaters for major rivers including tributaries to the Colorado River and the Rio Grande. Historic agriculture, extensive public lands, and recreation and tourism were impacted by unprecedented drought. We explore factors conferring community resilience in the context of drought typology and impact time-frame. Drought typology includes 1) meteorological drought (precipitation deficit), 2) agricultural drought (soil moisture deficit), 3) hydrological drought (deficit in water resources), and 4) socioeconomic drought (when the former definitions impact the supply and demand of goods). Impact time-frame includes short-term impacts lasting weeks to months and long-term impacts potentially lasting a year or more. Specific short-term impacts observed in 2018 include dry stock tanks, limited forage quantity and quality and the immediate response to the 416 fire, which burned 55,000 acres in the San Juan National Forest over 61 days. Longer-term impacts of the 2018 drought include local and regional diminished water supply, poor water quality, fish kills, post-fire mudslides in the burn scar and producer decisions to permanently transition out of agriculture. Community drought resilience efforts began in January, when dismal snowpack led to community leader meetings followed by drought informational meetings with irrigators. Water-specific factors conferring resilience include plentiful initial reservoir water storage, sophisticated irrigation system planning, owning senior water rights or having access to groundwater, and establishment of shortage sharing agreements (e.g. Animas River irrigators). As drought conditions continued, producers hauled water for livestock and wildlife. Others had to fallow lower-value crops and hand-water high-value crops. Local service-based organizations (Good Food Collective and Spring Creek Horse Rescue) and established supportive relationships between land-owner and rancher led to resilience in specific instances. Geographically decoupled water sources from demands led to longer-term, distant impacts of exceptional drought in this headwaters region. Throughout the drought webinars featuring weather and climate experts provided updates which were used by local managers and the media to communicate drought progress and resources.

}, author = {Emile H. Elias and Caitriana Steele and J.T. Reyes and David A. Brown and Behery, Susan and Weight, Elizabeth} } @conference {JRN55065, title = {Observed changes in Upper Rio Grande snowpack water storage and snowmelt timing: 1980 to 2018}, booktitle = {Universities Council on Water Resources}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, address = {Snowbird, UT}, abstract = {

One of the most widely anticipated impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle of western watersheds is earlier snow melt. Observational studies and hydrological modeling efforts predict diminished snowpack and earlier peak streamflow in watersheds across the western United States. Here we use snow course data of the snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) network from 16 stations in the Upper Rio Grande watershed with the longest data record (~40-years). Trend analyses with various methodologies (parametric, mann-kendall and regional kendall) and time-windows (1980 to 2018 and 1984 to 2018) augment previous modeling studies. We anticipate that since the observable impacts of climate change are occurring in many sectors, observed data may show a decreasing trend in maximum water equivaled of the snowpack (SWE), earlier snowmelt, shifts in the snowmelt window and a more rapid snowmelt (fewer days between peak snowpack and no snowpack). \ Trend analyses between 1980 and 2018 show the maximum annual water content in snowpack is decreasing, the snowpack is melting earlier and the date of the maximum SWE is earlier in the year. However, the number of days between the peak snowpack and no snowpack did not change {\textendash} indicating that the snowpack was not melting faster. The early 1980{\textquoteright}s was an anomalous wet time, so we tested trends from 1984 to 2018 and found trends similar to those reported using linear regression. \ Maximum SWE declined in 11 of 16 watersheds, maximum SWE was reached earlier in 10 of 16 watersheds and the snowmelt window was earlier in 10 of 16 watersheds. Trends for the 1980 to 2018 and the 1984 to 2018 timeframes were similar, despite controlling for an anomalously wet early 1980{\textquoteright}s. The regional kendall test reflects these trends with significantly decreasing maximum annual SWE, earlier arrival of maximum SWE and an earlier snowmelt window. Over the 40 years of measured snowpack data results indicate that snowmelt is 16 days to 5 weeks earlier, similar to modeling studies comparing a 40 to 70-year timeframe (1999 to midcentury).

}, author = {Emile H. Elias and D. K. James and Sierra Heimel} } @article {JRN54906, title = {Contributions of hydrology to Vesicular Stomatitis Virus emergence in the Western USA}, journal = {Ecosystems}, volume = {22}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {416-433}, chapter = {416}, abstract = {

Relationships between environmental variables associated with the spread of vector-borne pathogens, such as RNA viruses transmitted to humans and animals, remain poorly understood. \ Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is caused by a vector-borne, zoonotic RNA virus (VSV), and is the most common vesicular disease affecting livestock (domestic horses, cattle, pigs) throughout the Americas. This investigation focused on explaining patterns of \>1500 incidents of VS in livestock in the western US from 2004-2016 related to the ecology of the host-vector-virus-environment system. We investigated the relationship between VS incidents and habitat characteristics expected to be important to insect vectors: stream location, streamflow conditions, climate, and vegetation. Results show that VS incidents were distributed near the stream network with 72\% located within 1 km of lotic habitat. The watershed with highest number of VS confirmed premises had the largest mean premises distance from flowing water. Monthly incidents were closest to lotic habitat in April (x=525m) and furthest from lotic habitat in November, December and January (1,843m, 2,141n and 4,807m) indicating that initial infection near streams may spread away from these locations. All first incidents (n=35) occurred following peak annual streamflow, with 89\% (31 of 35) of these occurring after streams returned to baseflow. This finding indicated that surveillance for VS could be targeted spatially in locally-relevant geographical areas (i.e., near streams) and temporally relative to local streamflow conditions which can be remotely monitored via existing web-accessible information networks. Habitat modeling of 11 subwatersheds revealed somewhat different models for each watershed with several factors important in multiple watersheds such as higher horse density. In nine of the 11 watersheds, the highest model PC (31 to 71\%) represented either higher than average long-term mean temperature or lower than average long-term mean precipitation. Approaching habitat modeling on a watershed basis reveals information to support additional research. These spatial and temporal relationships showcase the importance of hydrological contributions to the emergence and distribution of an arthropod-borne disease in the western U.S.

}, doi = {10.1007/s10021-018-0278-5}, url = {/files/bibliography/19-004.pdf}, author = {Emile H. Elias and David McVey and Debra C. Peters and J. D. Derner and Angela Pelzel-McCluskey and Scott T. Schrader and Luis L Rodriguez} } @article {JRN54931, title = {County-level climate change information to support decision-making on working lands within USDA Climate Hub regions}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {148}, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, pages = {355{\textendash}369}, chapter = {3}, abstract = {

Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners across the USA make weather- and climate-related management decisions at varying temporal and spatial scales, often with input from local experts like crop consultants and cooperative extension (CE) personnel. In order to provide additional guidance to such longer-term planning efforts, we developed a tool that shows statistically downscaled climate projections of temperature and precipitation consolidated to the county level for the contiguous US. Using the county as a fundamental mapping unit encourages the use of this information within existing institutional structures like CE and other U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) programs. A {\textquotedblleft}quick-look{\textquotedblright} metric based on the spatial variability of climate within each county aids in the interpretation of county-level information. For instance, relatively higher spatial variability within a county indicates that more localized information should be used to support stakeholder planning. Changes in annual precipitation show a latitudinal dipole where increases are projected for much of the northern US while declines are projected for counties across the southern US. Seasonal shifts in county-level precipitation are projected nationwide with declines most evident in summer months in most regions. Changes in the spatial variability of annual precipitation for most counties were less than 10\ mm, indicating fairly spatially homogenous midcentury precipitation changes at the county level. Annual and seasonal midcentury temperatures are projected to increase across the USA, with relatively low change in the spatial variability (\<0.3\ {\textdegree}C) of temperature across most counties. The utility of these data is shown for forage and almond applications, both indicating a potential decline in production in some future years, to illustrate use of county-level seasonal projections in adaptation planning and decision-making.

}, keywords = {agriculture, climate change, Cooperative extension, decision-making, forestry, ranching, USDA climate hubs}, doi = {doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2040-y}, url = {files/bibliography/18-024.pdf}, author = {Emile H. Elias and Scott T. Schrader and John T Abatzoglou and D. K. James and Michael Crimmins and Weiss, Jeremy and A. Rango} } @conference {JRN54937, title = {How do Progressively Warming Temperatures Impact Runoff Volume and Streamflow Timing in Rio Grande Watersheds?}, booktitle = {86th Annual Western Snow Conference}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, address = {Albuquerque, New Mexico}, abstract = {

We used a revised version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRMc21) to simulate the impact of progressively warming temperatures on snowmelt runoff in four headwaters catchments of the San Juan Mountains (Alamosa, Chama, Conejos and Del Norte) draining to the Rio Grande. MODIS snow cover was used to generate depletion curves, which are used in SRM, along with parameters adjustable to fit measured and simulated runoff. For each watershed, SRMc21 was first used to simulate daily streamflow with a high agreement between measured and computed runoff (R2=0.92 to 0.96).\  SRMc21 was then used to simulate the impacts of sequentially increasing temperatures (1, 2, 3 and 4C). In each watershed total annual volume progressively declined with increasing temperature (mean decline of 5\% with +1C, 8\% with +2C, 10\% with +3C and 13\% with +4C temperature increase). For each watershed, the center of volume date shifted progressively earlier with each increase in temperature. Center of volume was one week earlier with a mean temperature increase of 1C and up to one month earlier with an increase of 4C. The ability to shift operational and institutional frameworks (such as water rights) to accommodate shifts in streamflow timing should be an area of future analysis. The simulated temperature increases are within CMIP5 multi-model mean projections for the region. By midcentury (2040-2069) the moderate scenarios (RCP 4.5) project a mean temperature increase of 2.4C whereas the high-emissions scenarios (RCP 8.5) project a mean temperature increase of 3.3C. End of century (2070-2099) moderate scenarios project an average increase of 3.0C whereas high-emissions scenarios project a 5.3C increase in mean temperature for this region.

}, author = {Emile H. Elias and Ryann Smith and Caitriana Steele and A. Rango} } @proceedings {JRN55167, title = {Resilient agroecosystems session}, year = {2018}, month = {12/14/2018}, abstract = {

Assessing vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate variability and change is vital in securing food systems and sustaining rural livelihoods. Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners rely on science-based, decision-relevant, and localized information to maintain production, ecological viability, and economic returns. This contribution synthesizes a collection of research on the future of agricultural production in the American Southwest (SW). Research was based on a variety of geospatial methodologies and datasets to assess the vulnerability of rangelands and livestock, field crops, specialty crops, and forests in the SW to climate-risk and change. This collection emerged from the development of regional vulnerability assessments for agricultural climate-risk by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hub Network, established to deliver science-based information and technologies to enable climate-informed decision-making.\  Authors defined vulnerability differently based on their agricultural system of interest, although each primarily focuses on biophysical systems. We found that an inconsistent framework for vulnerability and climate risk was necessary to adequately capture the diversity, variability, and heterogeneity of SW landscapes, peoples, and agriculture.\  Through the diversity of research questions and methodologies, this collection of articles provides valuable information on various aspects of SW vulnerability. All articles relied on geographic information systems technology, with highly variable levels of complexity. Agricultural articles used National Agricultural Statistics Service data, either as tabular county level summaries or through the CropScape cropland raster datasets. Most relied on modeled historic and future climate information, but with differing assumptions regarding spatial resolution and temporal framework. We assert that it is essential to evaluate climate risk using a variety of complementary methodologies and perspectives. In addition, we found that spatial analysis supports informed adaptation, within and outside the SW United States. The persistence and adaptive capacity of agriculture in the water-limited Southwest serves as an instructive example and may offer solutions to reduce future climate risk.

}, author = {Emile H. Elias and J.T. Reyes and Caitriana Steele and Johnson, R. and Rachel Steele} } @conference {JRN54946, title = {Southwest US dust monitoring and mitigation symposium}, booktitle = {73rd Soil and Water Conservation Society International Annual Conference}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, address = {Albuquerque, New Mexico}, abstract = {

We propose a symposium to address dust monitoring and mitigation in semi-arid agricultural settings, with a focus on the Southwest United States. Participants representing NRCS, ARS, the USDA Southwest and Southern Plains Climate Hubs, land-grant universities, and other key partners will discuss various aspects of dust monitoring (e.g., National Wind Erosion Network establishment) and mitigation (e.g., best practices for land management). The impacts of climate variability and change on existing and projected regional dust generation and air quality will provide the foundation for discussion of interdisciplinary and interconnected impacts, such as changes in water availability, soil quality, and management practice implications for long-term sustainability and resilience.\  Presentation of dust mitigation recommendations and an update on a new USDA-sponsored draft dust mitigation handbook, organized by production type, will be followed by audience participation and feedback focused on practicable solutions and discussion of future field research and demonstration projects. Relevant audience recommendations and feedback will be incorporated into the final version of the USDA dust monitoring and mitigation handbook. We propose one 90-minute session wherein a series of presentations (60-minutes) will be followed by presentation and audience feedback and interaction on the USDA dust monitoring and mitigation handbook. The symposium will be moderated by the organizers.

}, author = {Emile H. Elias and David A. Brown and Steve Smarik and Nicholas Webb and David Dubois} } @article {JRN54928, title = {Vulnerability of field crops to midcentury temperature changes and yield effects in the Southwestern USA}, journal = {Journal of Climate Change}, volume = {148}, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, pages = {403-417}, chapter = {403}, abstract = {

Increased temperatures in the Southwestern USA will impact future crop production via multiple pathways. We used four methods to provide an illustrative analysis of midcentury temperature impacts to eight field crops. By midcentury, cropland area thermally suitable for maize cultivation is projected to decrease, while area suitable for cotton cultivation expands northward and nearly doubles in extent. The increase in area exposed to daily temperatures \>\ 35\ {\textdegree}C was highest for oat and maize. Estimates of yield reduction from heat stress for both maize and cotton indicate that historically, SW heat stress reduced cotton yield by 26\% and maize yield by 18\% compared to potential yield. By midcentury, we predict yield reduction from heat stress will reduce cotton and maize yields by 37 and 27\%, respectively, compared to potential yield. Our results contradict the notion that the warmest counties cultivating field crops will be the most impacted. Rather, future temperature, total crop area and crop sensitivity contribute to more complex county-level impacts. Identification of representative target environments under future temperature regimes can inform development of farm-based networks to evaluate new crop germplasm with increased heat tolerance and viable adaptation and management strategies to respond effectively to future temperatures.

}, doi = {doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2108-8}, url = {files/bibliography/18-025.pdf}, author = {Emile H. Elias and Marklein, Alison and John T Abatzoglou and Jake Dialesandro and Joel R. Brown and Caitriana Steele and A. Rango and Kerri Steenwerth} } @conference {JRN54814, title = {Regional services in a research context: USDA Climate Hubs in the Agricultural Research Service}, booktitle = {ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, publisher = {ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting Abstracts}, organization = {ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting Abstracts}, address = {Tampa, FL}, abstract = {

Ten USDA Climate Hubs were created in 2014 to develop and deliver science-based, region-specific information and technologies to better enable agricultural decision-making and management to promote resilient working landscapes. Of these ten Hubs, half are administered by USDA{\textquoteright}s Agricultural Research Service (ARS), an agency with historical excellence in science but less so in services. The ARS Hubs therefore represent an innovative opportunity for ARS to enhance its mission through the delivery of user-inspired science at regional scales. The focus of this study is the line connecting science to services within ARS, with an emphasis in three areas: (a) understanding science priorities within the agency and their translation to regional scales; (b) understanding regional user information needs and the capabilities and mechanisms available to respond to those needs; and (c) highlighting success stories from each of the five ARS Hubs in connecting science to users through services delivery. Opportunities and recommendations to continue strengthening the science-to-services linkage are also addressed, including greater incorporation of both physical and social science perspectives, knowledge coproduction and the role of key partner organizations in the regional climate services enterprise.

}, author = {Emile H. Elias and David A. Brown and Ostoja, Steven and Dannele E. Peck and Todey, Dennis and A. Rango} } @conference {JRN54933, title = {Varying Geospatial Analyses to Assess Climate Risk and Adaptive Capacity in a Hotter, Drier Southwestern United States}, booktitle = {American Geophysical Union}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, address = {New Orleans, Louisiana}, abstract = {

Assessing vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate variability and change is vital in securing food systems and sustaining rural livelihoods. Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners rely on science-based, decision-relevant, and localized information to maintain production, ecological viability, and economic returns.
This contribution synthesizes a collection of research on the future of agricultural production in the American Southwest (SW). Research was based on a variety of geospatial methodologies and datasets to assess the vulnerability of rangelands and livestock, field crops, specialty crops, and forests in the SW to climate-risk and change. This collection emerged from the development of regional vulnerability assessments for agricultural climate-risk by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hub Network, established to deliver science-based information and technologies to enable climate-informed decision-making.
Authors defined vulnerability differently based on their agricultural system of interest, although each primarily focuses on biophysical systems. We found that an inconsistent framework for vulnerability and climate risk was necessary to adequately capture the diversity, variability, and heterogeneity of SW landscapes, peoples, and agriculture. \ Through the diversity of research questions and methodologies, this collection of articles provides valuable information on various aspects of SW vulnerability. All articles relied on geographic information systems technology, with highly variable levels of complexity. Agricultural articles used National Agricultural Statistics Service data, either as tabular county level summaries or through the CropScape cropland raster datasets. Most relied on modeled historic and future climate information, but with differing assumptions regarding spatial resolution and temporal framework. We assert that it is essential to evaluate climate risk using a variety of complementary methodologies and perspectives. In addition, we found that spatial analysis supports informed adaptation, within and outside the SW United States. The persistence and adaptive capacity of agriculture in the water-limited Southwest serves as an instructive example and may offer solutions to reduce future climate risk.

}, author = {Emile H. Elias and J.T. Reyes and Caitriana Steele and A. Rango} } @article {JRN54627, title = {Climate change, agriculture and water resources in the Southwestern United States}, journal = {Journal of Contemporary Water Research and Education}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, pages = {46-61}, abstract = {

In February 2014 the USDA established regional climate hubs across the United States to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in adapting to the effects of climate change. The Southwest (SW) region encompasses six states which provide highly diverse agricultural crops including cotton, stone fruit and grapes. Here we report on the establishment of programs to assist SW working landowners with the impacts of climate change, with focus on the water resources of the region. Water is a critical component of agricultural vulnerability in the SW, where high agricultural production can occur with sufficient irrigation. Since 1978, crop yield declines were reported on 11-21\% of total irrigated acres, mostly due to surface water shortage. Southwestern agriculture relies heavily on groundwater, using it to supply more than one-third of the agricultural water demand since 1955. Regional groundwater use varies over time, with a decline in the agricultural groundwater fraction in Arizona, but an increase in the fraction in Nevada and Utah. Observed and predicted changes in the southwestern hydrologic cycle can impact regional agriculture. Observed records show an increase in the fraction of precipitation falling as rain, which is expected to continue with future warming. Warming causes the snowmelt to peak earlier in the season and can reduce water available to crops during the summer months without additional water storage. Observed records indicate streamflow has shifted earlier in the year, most notably in snow dominated watersheds a continuation of this trend may challenge regional agriculture by further limiting water supply.

}, keywords = {agriculture, climate change, Southwest Climate Hub, water resources}, url = {files/bibliography/16-017.pdf}, author = {Emile H. Elias and A. Rango and Ryann Smith and Connie J. Maxwell and Caitriana Steele and Kris Havstad} } @conference {JRN54609, title = {Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?}, booktitle = {American Geophysical Union}, year = {2016}, month = {12/2016}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, organization = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {San Francisco, CA}, abstract = {
Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6\%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4\%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p=0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended on the period examined. Recent trends in Southwest precipitation are directionally consistent with anthropogenic climate change.
}, author = {Emile H. Elias and A. Rango and D. K. James and Connie J. Maxwell and John P. Anderson and John T Abatzoglou} } @conference {JRN54611, title = {Ensuring coordination and collaboration across climate science entities: toward effective stakeholder engagement for science-informed decisions}, booktitle = {American Geophysical Union}, year = {2016}, month = {12/2016}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, organization = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {San Francisco, CA}, abstract = {
As one of the newest federal programs to emerge in response to climate change, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs were established to assist farmers, ranchers and forest landowners in their adaptation and mitigation efforts under a changing climate. The Hubs{\textquoteright} mission is to deliver science-based information and tools to agricultural and natural resource land managers, to enable climate-informed decision-making. By facilitating and transferring tools and knowledge, the Hubs also provide value to cooperative extension, land grant institutions, and USDA itself, especially in leveraging existing resource capacity. Various federal agencies (NOAA, USGS, USFWS) have also developed climate change coordination networks: \ RISAs, CSCs, and LCCs. These regionally-based federal networks can best operate in collaboration with one another. At their programmatic level, however, there are fundamental discrepancies in mission, stakeholder definition and geographic region. In this presentation, we seek to compare and contrast these divergent characteristics by identifying {\textquoteleft}hot spots{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}hot moments{\textquoteright} where definitions, programs, or priorities may intersect due to place-based or event-based issues. The Southwest (SW) region of the United States, which presently operates under warm and dry conditions, is projected to become warmer and drier in the future. On-going drought conditions have presented an opportunity to maintain and build professional networks among these federal climate change coordination networks, as well as within USDA, to better understand impacts and respond to stakeholder needs. Projects in the Rio Grande River Valley and with Tribal nations highlight successful collaboration based on geography and common stakeholders, respectively. Aridity and water scarcity characterize the SW region and provide an overarching theme to better support adaptation and mitigation, as well as create opportunities for collaborative success.\ 
}, author = {Emile H. Elias and Caitriana Steele and A. Rango and J.T. Reyes and Langston, Mike and Johnson, Kevin and Rice, John} } @article {JRN54502, title = {Impacts of forest to urban land conversion and ENSO phase on water quality of a public water supply reservoir}, journal = {Forests}, volume = {3}, year = {2016}, month = {01/2016}, abstract = {

We used coupled watershed and reservoir models to evaluate the impacts of deforestation and ENSO phase on drinking water quality. Source water total organic carbon (TOC) is especially important due to the potential for production of carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs). The Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) reservoir model is used to evaluate the difference between daily pre- and post- urbanization nutrients and TOC concentration. Post-disturbance (future) reservoir TN, TP, TOC and chlorophyll-a concentrations were found to be higher than pre-urbanization (base) concentrations (p\<0.05). Predicted future median TOC concentration was 1.1 mg L-1 (41\% higher than base TOC concentration) at the source water intake. Simulations show that prior to urbanization, additional water treatment was necessary on 47\% of the days between May and October. However, following simulated urbanization, additional drinking water treatment might be continuously necessary between May and October. One of six ENSO indices is weakly negatively correlated with the measured reservoir TOC indicating there may be higher TOC concentrations in times of lower streamflow (La Ni{\~n}a). There is a positive significant correlation between simulated TN and TP concentrations with ENSO suggesting higher concentrations during El Ni{\~n}o.

}, keywords = {deforestation, drinking water treatment, eservoir model, total organic carbon disinfection byproducts; ENSO, urbanization}, doi = {10.3390/f7020029}, url = {/files/bibliography/16-003.pdf}, author = {Emile H. Elias and Rodriguez, Hugo and Srivastava, Puneet and Dougherty, Mark and D. K. James and Ryann Smith} } @article {JRN54501, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on water availability of snowmelt-dominated basins of the Upper Rio Grande Basin}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies }, volume = {3}, year = {2015}, month = {05/2015}, pages = {525-546}, chapter = {525}, abstract = {

Study Region- Upper Rio Grande, Colorado and New Mexico, USA: Climate change is predicted to further limit the water availability of the arid southwestern U.S. In this study, the Snowmelt Runoff Model is used to evaluate impacts of increased temperature and altered precipitation on snow covered area, streamflow timing and seasonal and total volume in the Upper Rio Grande.\  Simulations investigate a fairly hot and dry future condition at the end of the 21st century using a regionally recommended general circulation model downscaled to existing climate stations. Twenty-four subbasins of the Upper Rio Grande containing appreciable snowmelt and a long-term gauging station are simulated. \ \ New Hydrological Insights for the Region: Total basin snow covered area decreased by 55\% due to future temperatures. SRM simulation shows that total annual 2099 volume for all basins was between 13\% and 33\% lower than 1999 total annual volume. Among the 24 basins there is considerable range in decrease in snow covered area (6-87\%), total volume reduction (4-34\%) and runoff timing shift (0-60 days early) indicating that climate change impacts are best evaluated at the sub-basin scale. Daily hydrographs show higher streamflow in March and April, but less from mid-May until the end of the water year.\  The large decrease in volume in May, June and July will compound water management challenges in the Upper Rio Grande.

}, keywords = {climate change, snowmelt runoff model, Upper Rio Grande, water resources}, doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.04.004}, url = {/files/bibliography/15-021.pdf}, author = {Emile H. Elias and A. Rango and Caitriana Steele and Mejia, John and Ryann Smith} } @conference {JRN54400, title = {Climate programs update: USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub update}, booktitle = {Great Basin Consortium Conference}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, abstract = {

PROGRAM OVERVIEW: The overarching goal of the USDA SW Climate Hub is to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in addressing the effects of climate change including prolonged drought, increased insect outbreaks and severe wildfires.\  In the first year of operations, the SW Climate Hub (est. February 2014) entered into formal agreements with Cooperative Extension in our 6 states (AZ, CA, HI, NM, NV and UT) to create a network for communication and technology transfer between researchers and stakeholders.The Hub funded a climate change module at the 6th grade level and tested it for expansion to urban and rural schools across the region. Over the past year the Hub authored an assessment of the vulnerability of SW working lands to climate change. The SW Hub and Sub Hub endeavor to partner with other climate-related federal, state and tribal programs in support of resilient and adaptive SW communities.

}, author = {Emile H. Elias} } @conference {JRN54416, title = {Impact of climate change on water quality of an impaired New Mexico river}, booktitle = {New Mexico Water Conference}, year = {2015}, month = {10/2015}, address = {Taos, NM}, abstract = {

Climate change is predicted to advance runoff timing in snowmelt basins and decrease available water, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. Researchers have suggested that the impacts of climate change will degrade water quality by reducing dilution. We use coupled snowmelt and water quality models to quantify the impacts of climate change on the Chama River, a New Mexico waterbody presently impaired to temperature, nutrients and pathogens. We use the Snowmelt Runoff Model and downscaled temperature and precipitation to simulate the impacts of a statistically selected range of future climate conditions (warmer/wetter; warmer/drier; hotter/wetter; hotter/drier) on streamflow. SRM streamflow for base and future scenarios is coupled with a water quality model (LOADEST) to evaluate the impacts of climate change on water quality. There is a shift in timing of the delivery of water quality loads with more early small peaks during autumn and winter and an earlier and lower peak in snow melt runoff loads. The impacts of climate change vary by hydrograph phase, with higher loads during baseflow, particularly for the hotter/wetter simulation, but lower loads during snowmelt runoff for all parameters. Water quality responses vary by parameter and year, indicating a range of impacts of climate change on water quality which should be evaluated separately for each parameter. Abstract $\#$40.

}, author = {Emile H. Elias and D. K. James and A. Rango and Caitriana Steele and Ryann Smith and Mejia, John} } @conference {JRN54408, title = {Impacts of climate change on Southwestern working lands and water resources: a report from the inaugural year of the USDA Southwest climate hub}, booktitle = {2015 UCOWR / NIWR / CUAHSI Annual Conference}, year = {2015}, month = {06/2015}, address = {Henderson, NV}, abstract = {

In February 2014 the USDA established seven regional climate hubs to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in adapting to the effects of climate change.\  The SW region encompasses six states (including Hawaii) and provides highly diverse agricultural crops including cotton, stone fruit and grapes.\  The SW relies on irrigation more heavily than any other in the US and water supplies are critical to meeting regional irrigation needs. In addition, seasonal and annual rainfall amounts dictate livestock numbers regional rangelands can support.\  Projected future temperatures by mid-century indicate a 2 to 4{\textdegree}C average annual temperature increase across the region.\  This increase will further limit presently scarce water resources by increasing regional evaporation and transpiration.\  Models predict that drought and water competition will likely be a more frequent reality in future.\ \ \  To help SW working land owners cope with the impacts of climate change, the Hub has established formal agreements with Cooperative Extension and hosted regional climate change workshops.\  The Hub funded development of a climate change module for regional rural and urban schools.\ \  Hub staff drafted a Vulnerability Assessment of SW crops, animal agriculture and forests to climate change.\  Vulnerability to climate change is generally defined in terms of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity.\  Given temperature increases and reduced winter chilling hours, certain crops will have likely have reduced yields while others, given adequate water, will be less effected.\  Similarly, certain livestock and geographic regions are more vulnerable to projected climate change. Water is a critical component of agricultural vulnerability in the SW and results are presented from a hydrologic perspective.

}, author = {Emile H. Elias and A. Rango and Kris Havstad and Caitriana Steele} } @article {JRN54585, title = {Southwest regional climate hub and California subsidiary hub assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation strategies}, year = {2015}, pages = {76 pp.}, publisher = {United States Department of Agriculture}, abstract = {

This report describes the potential vulnerability of specialty crops, field crops, forests, and animal agriculture to climate-driven environmental changes. Here, vulnerability is defined as a function of exposure to climate change effects, sensitivity to these effects, and adaptive capacity. The exposure of specific sectors of the agricultural and forestry industries varies across the region because the Southwest is climatically and topographically diverse. There is also variability in the sensitivity of different systems to the impacts of climate change. Most significantly, there is potential within agricultural and forestry systems to adjust to climate-related impacts either through inherent resilience or through conservative management practices. The purpose of this analysis is to describe regional vulnerabilities to climate change and adaptive actions that can be employed to maintain productivity of working lands in the coming decades.

}, url = {/files/bibliography/15-029.pdf}, author = {Emile H. Elias and Caitriana Steele and Kris Havstad and Kerri Steenwerth and Chambers, Jeanne and Helena Deswood and A. Rango and Kerr, Amber and Schwartz, Mark and Stine, Peter and Rachel Steele} } @conference {JRN54414, title = {Tools for adaptation and mitigation of climate change on southwestern working-lands}, booktitle = {New Mexico Water Conference}, year = {2015}, month = {10/2015}, address = {Taos, NM}, abstract = {

In February 2014, the USDA established 7 Hubs and 3 Sub Hubs across the nation to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in adapting to the effects of climate change. Specific vulnerabilities related to projected climatic changes in the Southwest (SW) include water scarcity, the effects of elevated temperatures on livestock production and regional cropping systems and elevated wildfire risk. In the first 18 months, the SW Climate Hub initiated projects and programs to help New Mexico farmers and ranchers adapt to climate change. The Climate Hub Tool Shed provides information on tools that can assist agricultural and forest land managers in adapting to climate variability and change. The SW Hub launched several projects to translate scientific information and reach the public such as 1) authoring of a vulnerability assessment of southwestern working lands to climate change, 2) partnering with Cooperative Extension Service to host landowner workshops on climate change and 3) supporting education of future generations via a climate change - water cycle educational module, tailored to the SW, comprised of 10 one-hour lessons. To reach a broad audience, the SW Hub hosts a website, provides a monthly bulletin, partners with sister federal climate change programs and convenes sessions at scientific meetings.

}, author = {Emile H. Elias and A. Rango and Caitriana Steele and Kris Havstad and Joel R. Brown and Ryann Smith} } @conference {JRN54401, title = {Vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities of selected southwestern crops to climate change}, booktitle = {Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop (CPASW)}, year = {2015}, month = {03/2015}, address = {Las Cruces, NM}, abstract = {

By the middle of the 21st Century, maximum annual temperatures in the Southwest (SW) are expected to increase by 2-4 C with the highest increases occurring in the summer months of Jun-Aug. While annual precipitation may remain similar to 1971-2000 values, Mar-May precipitation in the SW may decline up to 20\% in certain locations. These projections, along with likely increases in extreme events such as heat waves and droughts, will impact crop production via multiple pathways including water scarcity, temperature sensitivity and cumulative ecosystem effects. We present examples of the likely consequences for specific annual and perennial crops common in the SW United States. The main field crops in the SW by area and production value are alfalfa, cotton, wheat, corn and rice. The optimum temperature range for maximum grain yield of these crops will be exceeded in broader spatial and temporal scales across much of the SW. The winter chilling requirements for stone fruit and tree nuts will not be met by the middle of the 21st century, resulting in lower yields. The observed "summer slump" in alfalfa, which is related to high temperatures in southern CA and AZ, will likely continue and expand. There are several adaptive measures that can be implemented to ensure yields. Ensuring adequate irrigation water supply is necessary. Certain crops, such as barley and safflower, are well adapted to arid environments and may represent a viable substitute for more water-intensive and vulnerable crops. Planting drought tolerant cultivars may help sustain yields. For certain crops, such as corn, wheat and stone-fruits, growth in regions representing optimal thermal ranges may be the best option for sustained production.

}, author = {Emile H. Elias and A. Rango and Caitriana Steele and Kris Havstad} } @article {JRN53978, title = {The public water supply protection value of forests: A watershed-scale ecosystem services based upon total organic carbon}, journal = {Open Journal of Ecology}, volume = {4}, year = {2014}, month = {06/2014}, pages = {517-531}, chapter = {517}, abstract = {

We developed a cost-based methodology to assess the value of forested watersheds to improve water quality in public water supplies. The developed methodology is applicable to other source watersheds to determine ecosystem services for water quality. We assess the value of forest land for source water mitigation of total organic carbon (TOC) through the use of linked watershed and reservoir simulation models and cost-based valuation economics. Watershed modeling results indicated that expected urbanization will increase TOC loads to Converse Reservoir (Mobile, AL).\  Reservoir model results indicated that future median TOC concentrations increased by 1.1 mg\·L-1 between 1992 and 2020 at the source water intake. Depending upon dynamic reservoir TOC concentrations, additional drinking water treatment with powdered activated carbon (PAC) often is necessary between May and October to comply with Safe Drinking Water Act regulations. The cost for additional treatment was calculated using minimum and maximum volume treated with simulated TOC concentrations at the source water intake. Daily simulated TOC concentrations for the base scenario using 1992 land cover (3\% urban) were compared with simulated TOC concentrations following forest to urban land conversion predicted in the watershed by 2020 (22\% urban).\  The daily cost for additional drinking water treatment with PAC was calculated if simulated TOC concentrations exceeded 2.7 mg\·L-1. The mean increase in daily treatment costs between base and future scenarios ranged from $91 to $95 per km2 per day for forest land water purification ecosystem services.

}, keywords = {drinking water treatment, ecosystem services, land use change, urbanization, water quality}, doi = {10.4236/oje.2014.49042}, url = {/files/bibliography/14-021.pdf}, author = {Emile H. Elias and Leband, David and Dougherty, Mark and Lockaby, Graeme and Srivastava, Puneet} } @conference {JRN54398, title = {Simulated impact of climate change on hydrology of multiple watersheds using traditional and recommended snowmelt runoff model methodology}, booktitle = {American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2014}, year = {2014}, month = {12/2014}, publisher = {AGU}, organization = {AGU}, address = {San Francisco, CA}, abstract = {

For more than three decades, researchers have utilized the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) to test the impacts of climate change on streamflow of snow-fed systems. In this study, the hydrological effects of climate change are modeled over three sequential years using SRM with both typical and recommended (parameter shift) methodology. We predict the impacts of climate change on water resources of the five most productive watersheds tributary to the Rio Grande.\  These basins collectively supply more than 75\% of the total river volume. Surface temperature and precipitation from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCM) from the coupled model intercomparison project CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model data set are downscaled to weather stations used to force the SRM.\  Period change analysis (1990-2000) vs. (2090-2100) is used to derive temperature and precipitation changes for 55 GCM simulations. However, for each basin we subsample the range of uncertainty characterized by these 55 GCMs into only four extreme mean states representing warmer/wetter, warmer/drier, hotter/wetter, and hotter/drier mean future projections. Results indicate an increase in temperature between 3.0-6.2 {\textdegree}C and an 18\% decrease to 26\% increase in precipitation. Following parameterization of SRM, the difference between measured and computed volume is 10\% and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency is 0.87. Without modifications to the snow runoff coefficient (Cs), results range from a reduction in total volume of 21\% to an increase in total volume of 4\% ((hotter/drier (-21\%); warmer/drier (-18\%); hotter/wetter (3\%); warmer/wetter (4\%)). Despite an increase in precipitation in the hotter/wetter scenario, total volume decreased in three of five simulated basins.\  Modifications to Cs resulted in a 0 to 16\% difference in simulated annual volume. Results indicate future application of SRM should include a parameter shift representing the changed climate.

}, author = {Emile H. Elias and A. Rango and Caitriana Steele and Mejia, John and Ruben Baca and D. K. James and Scott T. Schrader} }