@conference {51208,
	title = {Lagtimes in shifts of ecosystem boundaries in response to climate change: Importance of plant recruitment and soil development constraints},
	booktitle = {83rd Annual Meeting, Ecological Society of America},
	volume = {79},
	year = {1998},
	month = {1998},
	pages = {45},
	abstract = {Ecosystem boundaries and geographic distributions of species are predicted to change in response to directional changes in climate. The ability of a species to shift its geographic distribution depends upon processes associated with the recruitment, growth, and mortality of plants. Because these processes are nonlinearly related to climate and are also affected by soil processes, lag times in responses may result. Recent climate change simulation analyses predict an expansion of Chihuahuan desert grasslands and a reduction of shrublands in the southwestern U.S. Our objective was to evaluate the importance of plant life history traits and soil development processes to responses of important species in these ecosystems. We used a spatially-interactive gap dynamics model to predict responses for three conditions of initial soil development, from organic matter-rich soils to highly degraded soils. Predicted response times ranged from decades to millenia, and increased as soil development state decreased. Plant life history traits were the most important constraint on soils with high organic matter content. Although directional climate change may shift species distributions, these shifts will not occur rapidly or uniformly across a landscape or region, and will depend upon interactions between plant and soil processes.},
	author = {D.P. Coffin and Jeffrey E. Herrick}
}
